Bitcoin continued the move lower in January and set a low at $32,951 before moving higher to close the month around $38,440 below the prior support area around $42,000. Again, we see El Salvador buying bitcoin to add to their sovereign treasury now totalling 1,810 bitcoin. MicroStrategy purchased 660 bitcoins for around $25 million to bring their total holding as of 31st January to 125,051 bitcoin according to Michael Saylor’s tweet on 1st February.
The U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the application by Bitwise Asset Management to list the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust on Intercontinental Exchange Inc's NYSE Arca exchange. The SEC is seeking public comments on the spot-bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF), which could be seen as a positive move given the recent rejection of other spot-bitcoin EFT applications. Often SEC states that those filings did not meet "the requirement that the rules of a national securities exchange be 'designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices' and 'to protect investors and the public interest’”.
Fidelity Digital Assets released a report focused on considerations for investing in bitcoin separate to other digital assets stating that it is a secure, liquid and decentralized form of digital money with first mover advantage. Bitcoin with its finite supply and broad market adoption places it ahead of other digital assets as a reliable store of value and should be considered first when looking to invest in digital assets.
DAILY TREND: DOWN
Source: ICE Connect
Bitcoin continued to trend lower during January and broke support levels around $42,000 trading to a low around $32,951 on 24th January. XBT corrected for the remainder of the month and would need to hold the low and make higher lows to challenge the $52,100 lower high set on 27th December to indicate a reversal of the immediate trend lower.
XBT closed the month at $38,440 with a - 17.0% change.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Spring 2024 bitcoin halving event
US Dollar -
The U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX) closed to end the month of January at 96.54 (+0.98%) after reaching a high of 97.44, the highest point the USDX had traded since July 2020. This was a positive end after a slightly disappointing close for the first two weeks of trading. The Weekly 20 SMA provided strong support and a turning point leading to the USDX rally creating the high before pulling back from a resistance area on the final day of January trading.
Nonfarm Payrolls data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on 7th January was disappointing with December payrolls falling to 199,000 new jobs created which was significantly below expectations that estimated an increase of 400,000 jobs. Good news came as November data was revised upwards from 210,000 to 249,00. The USDX ended the day down, closing at 95.72, a loss of 0.55%.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on 12th January showed CPI continues to blight the economy with all items coming in at 7.0% for 12-months ending December, posting the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. Prices for all items less food and energy rose to 5.5% over the last 12-months, another record increase since the period ending February 1991. The USDX reacted negatively to this news with the USDX closing down for the day at 94.89, a loss of 0.73%.
On 26th January the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the Funds Rate will remain at <0.25% maintaining the current target range. The FOMC press conference held shortly after the announcement shared some welcome news as indications are showing economic activity and employment continued to strengthen. Despite Nonfarm Payrolls coming in below expectations, the numbers continue to be positive and unemployment falling. The market rallied on this news and the USDX closed the day at 96.40 a gain of 0.47%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® began the month of January with a strong start closing the first day of trading at 96.21 +0.64% after trading to a high of 96.33. At the highs the U.S. Dollar Index ® found a pocket of resistance formed on a Daily chart in December 2021 with a wider range of 96.33 - 96.67 where sellers were waiting.
On the 4th January, the U.S. Dollar Index ® steadily pushed higher into this area during the European session where prices reached a high of 96.48 and again found further resistance and the market began to drop. ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December came out early in the U.S. session reporting a disappointing 58.70 against 60.0 (expected), down on the prior month (61.1) and the lowest reported figure in eleven months. This exacerbated the initial downward move with the U.S. Dollar Index ® falling 0.21% within the first 30 minutes of trading following the announcement. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 96.27, +0.08%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to trade lower during early trading on the 5th January and not even positive ADP Employment Change data could change the sentiment. The announcement of private payrolls increasing from an expected 400,000 new hires to 807,000 was significant news but not enough to lighten the mood. The bears resumed their position and the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded lower reaching a pocket of support found on a 240-minute chart 95.94 - 95.74. Initial reactions at this area were subdued as all eyes were on the release of December’s FOMC minutes due later in the trading session.
The minutes once released were dissected sharing an indication that the Federal Reserve are planning to start to cut the amount of bonds in its holding and unwind its balance sheet sometime after the central bank starts to increase interest rates. The U.S. stock market reacted negatively to the news, which often can lead to U.S. Dollar rising as a flight to safety/risk off mechanism. The reaction to the report combined with the U.S. Dollar Index ® finding a pocket of support at 95.94 - 95.74 led to a quick rebound and the U.S. Dollar Index ® rallied 0.25% within the first 60-minutes although this was not enough to regain the losses made earlier in the session. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 96.18, down 0.15%.
On 6th January the U.S. Dollar Index ® bulls continued their push and the market climbed higher throughout the Asian session until the U.S. Dollar Index ® retested the resistance area at 96.33 - 96.67, here the bears stepped in and the market traded lower throughout the early European trading session. The bulls returned during the U.S. session and even the negative ISM Services PMI, which came out at 62.0, below expectations (66.9) and the previous month (69.1), did not dampen their spirits. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 96.33 a gain of 0.12%.
Nonfarm Payrolls released on 7th January reported 199,000 jobs were created in December, significantly below expectations of 400,000 and the prior month's data (249,000, revised upwards from 210,000). During the first 30 minutes of trading after the announcement there was a mixed reaction with the market reaching a high of 96.27 and a low of 96.04 before the U.S. Dollar Index ® settled on a close 96.21 +0.03%. The U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to trade lower throughout the day with the bears firmly in control to close down at 95.72 a loss of 0.55%. The first week of January trading saw the U.S. Dollar Index ® close +0.13%.
On the 10th January, there was no major news to report. During the day’s trading the U.S. Dollar Index ® retested the pocket of support at 95.94 - 95.74, just breaching the lower limits before taking a small bounce to close the day up at 95.99 +0.26%.
Fed Chair Powell testified to congress on 11th January and shared the news that if the pace of inflation is more persistent than expected then the central bank will become more aggressive with raising short-term borrowing. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed down for the day at 95.62, a loss of 0.29%.
Consumer Price Index data released on 12th January provided some volatility in the U.S. Dollar Index ® as the data for all items came out at 7.0% for 12-months ending December, posting the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. Prices for all items less food and energy rose to 5.5% over the last 12-months, above expectations and another record increase since the period ending February 1991. The U.S. Dollar Index ® reacted negatively to this news and dropped -0.31% within the first 30 minutes of trading following the announcement. This bearish stance continued throughout the trading session with the U.S. Dollar Index ® closing down for the day at 94.89 (-0.73%).
This bearish outlook continued into the following trading day where the U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to trade lower, closing on 13th January at 94.78 (rounded up) with a loss of 0.21% for the day.
On the 14th January, the market retested the prior day's low that happened to coincide with the 20 SMA on a Weekly chart and a previous breakout of resistance. The breakout was evidenced with some sideways consolidation on a 15-minute chart (creating support at 94.682 - 94.615) which formed on 10th November 2021, prior to the breakout of the highs at 94.64, a level which the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded below for the prior 14-months. This retest gained a positive reaction sending the market rallying and despite the negative Retail Sales Month on Month data for December published later in the U.S. session at -1.9% falling dramatically short of expectations (+0.2%) and a drop in Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, 68.8 against expected 70.0. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed up at 95.161, a gain of 0.35%. Overall a disappointing second week of trading with the U.S. Dollar Index ® closing down -0.60%.
Martin Luther King Jr Day in the U.S. meant trading was thin during Monday 17th January with the U.S. Dollar Index ® having little change on the day closing +0.01%. However, the bulls were back in force on 18th January with the strongest performances seen in the U.S. Dollar Index ® since the first trading day of the year, producing a gain of 0.60% by the close of play. There was no further high impact news due to be released until 26th January and the U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to press higher with the bulls and the bears almost switching control on a daily basis, with the market continuing to push higher in anticipation of the Fed announcement. The third week of trading closed with the U.S. Dollar Index ® at 95.64, a gain of 0.51%.
The Fed Interest Rate Decision was issued on 26th January and as anticipated, the Board of Governors unanimously voted to approve keeping the primary credit rate at 0.25%. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shared further information on their Economic Projections and as always ended the day with a Press Conference. There was a great deal of optimism shared with the news that economic activity and employment indicators showed continued strength and that those sectors which had most adversely been affected by the pandemic had started to see improvements over recent months. The committee acknowledged inflation is likely to remain at levels well above the target rate of 2% and combined with a strong labour market interest rates would likely rise in the near future. On this overall positive news, the U.S. Dollar Index ® within 30 minutes of the release rallied to close with a 0.32% gain. The bulls continued to drive prices higher throughout the day, with the market rallying into the pocket of resistance at 96.33 - 96.67 which was challenged in the early days of January trading and whilst some sell orders remained the reaction on the retest was minimal. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 96.40 with a gain of 0.47% for the day.
This upward momentum continued into the following trading day with a gap up in price and a strong bullish surge followed throughout the trading day as prices blasted through the area of resistance reached on the prior day with the bulls firmly in control. Positive GDP data created even more of an appetite for the bulls as figures published a 6.9% annualised growth against an estimate of 5.5%, which exceeded the prior release of 2.3%. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed 27th January trading at 97.24, a gain of 0.74%, one of the largest one-day gains seen in the past 12-weeks.
With the strong bullish move over the prior days, the U.S. Dollar Index ® rallied into a Weekly area of resistance at 96.93 - 97.81 and prices began to struggle. On 28th January as the market reached a high of 97.44 selling pressure came in and the bears started to work on taking back some of the gains the bulls had made. The U.S. Dollar Index ® ended at 97.27 with a small 0.05% gain. The last full week of trading in January ended with a 1.66% gain.
The bears were out in full force on the last trading day of the month and with no high impact macro data due out and little in the way of support until the wider range of 95.34 - 95.03 on a Daily Chart the U.S. Dollar Index ® dropped closing on 31st January at 96.54 with a loss of 0.70%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® ended January closing at 96.54, a gain of 0.98% for the month. Both the weekly and daily uptrends remain.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Tue 1 Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Wed 2 Feb ADP Employment Change (Jan)
Thr 3 Feb ISM Services PMI (Jan)
Fri 4 Feb Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
Thr 10 Feb CPI (Jan)
Fri 11 Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) PREL
Wed 16 Feb Retail Sales (Jan)
Wed 16 Feb FOMC Minutes
Fri 25 Feb Durable Goods Order (Jan)
Mon 28 Feb GDP Annualized (Q4) PREL
South Korean Won -
The South Korean Won closed the month of January at 1,204.63 KRW against the U.S. Dollar, which resulted in another month of losses for the South Korean Won. The South Korean Won lost 1.40% in value against the U.S. Dollar by the end of January.
Unemployment figures released on 11th January showed the unemployment rate was at 3.5%, down 0.6% year on year. This positive news led to the South Korean Won gaining some ground against the U.S. Dollar.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on 24th January for Q4 came in at 1.1% (Quarter on Quarter data), a welcomed boost beating expectations of 0.9% and the prior release of 0.3%, bucking the trend after the decline in GDP seen for Q2 and Q3 2021.
DAILY TREND: UP
Source: ICE Connect
The USDKRW opened 2022 at 1187.96 to reach a high during the first week of trading at 1206.45, a gain for the U.S. Dollar of 1.56% before pulling back on 6th January. This represented a continuation of weakness on the South Korean Won (quote currency in the pair) as the U.S. Dollar gained strength with the bulls driving prices higher in the early days of January trading.
On 6th January, after an impressive rally the pair saw selling pressure come in towards the end of the trading day after testing a pocket of resistance between 1203.00 - 1206.85 (created in July 2020) which when combined with negative data released in the U.S. on 7th January, had a significant drop. As the bears gained control the South Korean Won began to claw back some of the U.S. Dollar gains to close the first week of trading at 1197.57 +0.81%.
This selling pressure continued into the second week of trading with the USDKRW printing a bearish candle at close of play Monday.
Unemployment figures released on 11th January showed the unemployment rate was at 3.5%, down 0.6% year on year. This positive news led to the South Korean Won gaining further ground against the U.S. Dollar (as it is the quote currency in the pair) with the USDKRW closing at 1,192.31 (-0.48%) for the day and this bearish momentum continued into the following trading day.
On 13th January at a low of 1184.90 buyers stepped in and the pair stopped trading lower as the bulls regained control. The USDKRW to this point had dropped 1.79%, a significant increase in the South Korean Won with it being the quote in the pair.
From the low of 1184.90, the pair never looked back as the U.S. Dollar bulls charged forward and whilst there were a few days where the bears took control the bulls ultimately drove the pair higher to reach the resistance area once more (1203.00 - 1206.85). After a slight pause the sellers did not return in significant numbers and on 27th January, the pair blasted straight through.
This was a momentary victory for the bulls as eventually prices moved deeper into a weekly resistance area where at 1213.23 selling pressure came in and prices began to fall. This drop continued into the final trading day of the month where the USDKRW dropped by 0.42.
Overall, the USDKRW continues the uptrend in both the Daily and Weekly time frames, with the Weekly 20 SMA acting as support.
The USDKRW closed the month at 1204.63 with a +1.40% change for the month.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
No major events listed
Singapore Dollar -
The Singapore Dollar closed the month at $1.3511 against the U.S. Dollar after a varied month of trading closing with a small loss for January of 0.2%.
Singapore Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) data published on 3rd January for December came in at 50.7 which was above expectations (50.5) and showed a slight increase on the previous month (50.6).
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on 24th January showed inflation continues to rise with figures released showing CPI - all items 12-month ending December at 4.0% up from 3.8% in November.
Industrial Production data released on 26th January by the Singapore Department for Statistics showed a continued increase in manufacturing output. December data showed production was up by 15.6% Year on Year exceeding expectations of 12% and November’s Year on Year data at 14.1%.
DAILY TREND: DOWN
Source: ICE Connect
The USDSGD started the month positive posting a 0.43% gain at the close of the first day of trading. This U.S. Dollar strength and Singapore Dollar weakness (quote currency) continued throughout the following three consecutive trading days with higher closes posted.
Overall the pair gained 0.93% for the first four days of trading, driving the market into overhead resistance which combined the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands on a Daily chart and a resistance area of 1.3601 - 1.3624 on a 240-minute chart where sellers were waiting.
7th January had high impact U.S. Dollar news with the release of Nonfarm Payroll data. This data fell significantly below expectations and the U.S. Dollar bears returned, after reaching a high for the day at 1.3619 the USDSGD closed down ending the day at 1.3547 a loss of 0.44%. This drop on the pair demonstrated U.S. Dollar weakness and Singapore Dollar strength (quote in the pair). Even on the back of the negative U.S. news it was not sufficient for the Singapore Dollar to make up earlier losses and the USDSGD closed the first week of trading at 1.3545 +0.51%.
This bearish tone however continued throughout the majority of the second week of trading and after a brief pause on the 10th December, the bears continued the downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar.
Eventually a pocket of support was reached at 1.3485 - 1.3454 (formed 9th November on a Daily chart) and the pair just dipped below challenging the lower band of the Daily Bollinger Band which acted as additional support sending the pair upwards although initially with very little momentum. The pair began to consolidate in this area (the lower range of the Bollinger Bands) for the next ten trading days.
On 26th January, the bulls regained control and the pair rallied, closing higher for three consecutive trading days, blasting through the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. On 28th January, the USDSGD reached a pocket of resistance on a daily chart 1.3542 - 1.3580 (formed 10th January 2022) where we saw the bears return sending the market lower throughout the remainder of the trading session. This bearish tone continued after a brief retest during the final day of January trading with the USDSGD closing 1.3511 – 0.30%.
Overall, the USDSGD continues the downtrend on a Daily chart whilst range bound on a Weekly.
The USDSGD closed the month at 1.3511 with a +0.24% change.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
No major events listed
Chinese Yuan -
The Chinese Yuan Renminbi by the end of January lost ground against the U.S. Dollar for the first time in six months, closing at 6.3698 CNY against the U.S. Dollar.
Caixin Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) data for December released on 4th January came out better than expected with results for Manufacturing PMI at 50.9 against expectations of 50.0. Services PMI posted later in the week again above expectations with December data showing 53.1, both sets of data printed an increase on the prior month
Data shared on 7th January showed China’s foreign reserves rose to $3.25 trillion (in U.S. Dollars) by the end of December, reaching a six-year high with an increase of $27.8 billion month on month.
Trade Balance data out on 14th January showed China’s trade surplus continued to grow in December recording a trade balance of $94.46 billion (in U.S. Dollars) against a consensus of $74.5 billion after posting better than expected exports and a decline in imports. Exports rose by 20.9%, beyond expectations, credited to the government’s effective measures with managing the pandemic.
Retail Sales data released on 17th January was disappointing with an increase of 1.7% for 12-months ending December, falling significantly short of expectations (3.7%) and down on November data of 3.9%.
DAILY TREND: DOWN
Source: ICE Connect
The USDCNH started the month with the U.S. Dollar bulls in control posting a daily gain of 0.27% for the first day of trading before trading sideways.
The next big daily move occurred on the 6th January with the Yuan losing 0.28% of its value against the U.S. Dollar (as the quote currency in the pair) as the U.S. Dollar benefited from some welcome news of potential rate rises. The USDCNH closed the day at 6.3923.
The boost to the U.S. Dollar was short lived as the bears took over and the USDCNH closed lower for the following four consecutive trading days losing 0.52% of its value. The Yuan's strength helped initially by positive data issued on 7th January as China’s Foreign Reserves continue to grow at a significant pace. The USDCNH closed at 6.3823 and the Yuan gained 0.17% for the trading day.
The Yuan hit a fresh high for 2022 against the weaker U.S. Dollar on the 14th January just falling short of a pocket of daily support (6.3412 - 6.3198) before buyers stepped in to put a temporary pause to the drop.
This daily support area was deep within a wider support area evident on the Weekly chart created in May 2018 at 6.3752 - 6.3198, an area the pair had traded within during December 2021.
The pair hovered around this area of support for a number of days (upper area) until eventually the bears regained control and the pair dropped deeper.
The USDCNH eventually retested a lower level of support at 6.3267- 6.3063 on a Daily Chart with a confluence of levels (Daily and Weekly support) where buyers were waiting. On 27th January, the USDCNH bulls drove prices higher to create the biggest one-day gain of 0.53% pushing the pair closer to a pocket of resistance formed on the Daily chart 6.3769 - 6.3863.
Eventually after a strong rally during the last trading day of the month the resistance area was tested and the pair, having reached a high of 6.3864 found an abundance of sellers and the pair dropped. 31st January closed at 6.3698 +0.01%
The Daily and Weekly downtrend continues.
The USDCNH closed the month at 6.3698 with 0.21% change.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Wed 16 Feb CPI (Jan)
Thr 17 Feb Retail Sales (Jan)
Mon 21 Feb PBOC Interest Rate Decision
Mon 28 Feb Non–Manufacturing PMI & NBS–Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Asia Tech -
ICE Asia Tech 30 Index (ATI) set a new low at $4,173 towards the end of January as global markets fell on rising inflation and the potential for interest rate hikes. ATI managed to make a lower high mid-January at $4,620 before trending lower to close the month lower by 5.3%.
Chinese stocks fell with the broader market, with the hardest hit stock for the second month running being Bilibili Inc., ending 32% lower from the prior month. Sunny Optical Technology Group fell 19% after supporting the index last month, swapping places with Kuaishou Technology that closed stronger by 22%. Xiaomi Corp also ended the month weaker by 13%.
Taiwan components of the index were weak with semiconductor firm United Microelectronics taking a hit ending 12% lower while Taiwan Semiconductor held slightly higher by 3% versus December. Mediatek closed 10% lower for the month after ending 2021 well, where the company reached a new all-time high at NT$1,200.
Fujitsu Limited suffered a 24% drop followed by Keyence Corporation closing 19% lower. Tokyo Electron moved from its all-time high at ¥66,990 ending the month 19% lower. Nintendo was the only Japanese firm in the index to make a gain, which was slightly under 5%.
Korean stocks all moved lower with Kakao again experiencing another month of decline by 24%.
DAILY TREND: DOWN
Source: ICE Connect
ATI continued the move lower in January as global markets moved away from higher risk assets. ATI was able to make an intra-month high at $4,620, but moved lower in the last two weeks of January making a new low in the process at $4,173.
ATI closed the month at $4,275 with a -5.3% change.
Index Composition: 37% China, 23% Japan, 23% Taiwan and 17% South Korea
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Wed 16 Feb China CPI (Jan)
Thr 17 Feb Retail Sales (Jan)
Mon 21 Feb PBOC Interest Rate Decision
Mon 28 Feb China Non-Manufacturing PMI
Oil -
Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine are pushing oil prices higher on increased fears of potential action taken against Russia in the event of a direct conflict with Ukraine. Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer with the European Union receiving over 25% of its crude oil imports and more than 30% of its natural gas. Europe’s largest economy, Germany relies heavily on Russia for oil and natural gas and has few alternative energy options unlike France which uses nuclear energy for much of its electricity needs. Brent crude oil closed the month 14.8% higher versus December's close at $89.26.
The OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday 2nd February saw the alliance agree to a 400,000 barrels per day production increase in March. However, some countries have under produced in prior months including Angola, Nigeria and Malaysia caused by technical and operational issues, which led to lower crude oil supplies adding to the rise in price.
With the backdrop of rising oil prices, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji used the OPEC+ meeting to press for the lifting of U.S. sanctions and expressed their willingness to increase their supply of oil to meet the demand of consumers and support stability in the oil market.
DAILY TREND: UP
Source: ICE Connect
Brent traded higher on 28th January to $90.27, cleared the last high set in October 2018, and reached price levels not seen since September 2014. Geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine remained a key factor influencing higher prices.
Brent closed the month at $89.26 with a +14.8% change.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
● Wed 2 Feb OPEC+ policy meeting to decide on whether to increase supply of oil in March by 400,000 barrels per day
Key Figures -
Source: ICE Connect, ~30 Days
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