US DOLLAR
Summary:
The Mini U.S. Dollar Index® Futures (SDX) experienced a neutral start to July, finding itself at the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands before a lift on July 5th following the release of the FOMC minutes. However, the bulls did not sustain their momentum as disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls data on July 7th resulted in a loss of 0.89% for the day. The SDX closed the first week at 101.95 with a 0.62% loss.
Throughout the month, the SDX faced challenges and registered significant drops, especially after the release of core inflation data, which impacted future rate expectations for the U.S. Dollar. Despite retesting weekly support levels, the demand for the U.S. Dollar returned later, encouraged by a fall in jobless claims and optimism about potential future rate hikes.
Technical indicators showed mixed trends, with the daily timeframe experiencing an upward reversion, while the weekly timeframe continued the downtrend. The historical volatility suggests that the price from the prior month's close could range between 104.31 and 98.95 in the next 32 days.
Looking forward, traders and investors may consider the weekly support (99.26 to 97.84) or resistance (102.08 to 103.14) areas for planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. However, it's essential to be mindful of upcoming high-impact events such as Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, and GDP Annualized, as these events can significantly influence the U.S. Dollar's performance.
To make well-informed decisions in the forex market, traders should utilize powerful trading technology like AutoClimate or AutoUFOs. These tools, used by professionals, leverage advanced algorithms and data analysis to identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities.
The U.S. Dollar Index is a widely monitored currency benchmark that reflects the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies. The dollar's movements are influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, interest rate decisions, and global market sentiment.
As the global reserve currency, fluctuations in the U.S. Dollar Index have broad implications for global trade, commodity prices, and international finance. Traders and investors should stay updated with economic indicators, central bank actions, and geopolitical developments to navigate the dynamic foreign exchange market successfully.
Please note that this report provides market commentary and historical data analysis for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BITCOIN
Summary:
In July, Bakkt® Bitcoin (USD) Cash Settled Monthly Futures (BMC) witnessed a sideways correction, with prices reaching as high as $30,000 before closing the month at $29,610, representing a 5.3% decline from June. The digital asset markets experienced positive movements until mid-July, partly driven by a legal victory for Ripple (XRP), which was ruled not to be a security, providing relief to the crypto community.
In addition to the market movements, several regulatory developments occurred in the cryptocurrency space. Nomura's digital asset arm, Laser Digital, obtained a license from Dubai's Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA), enabling it to offer crypto-related services to institutional investors. Similarly, Société Générale-Forge (SG-Forge) in France became the first company to be licensed for cryptocurrency services, including custody and trading, by the French market regulator Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF).
Technical indicators revealed overall buying pressure in the daily timeframe, as indicated by moving averages, and positive buying conditions in the weekly timeframe. The historical volatility suggests that the price from the prior month's close could range between $25,615 and $33,605 in the next 30 days.
Looking ahead, investors and traders may consider the weekly support ($24,860 to $26,967) or resistance ($38,122 to $47,320) areas for planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. However, it's crucial to monitor upcoming high-impact events, such as the bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024 (Spring), as these events can significantly influence the cryptocurrency market.
To navigate the dynamic and volatile cryptocurrency market successfully, traders should leverage powerful trading technology like AutoClimate or AutoUFOs. These advanced tools, used by professional traders, provide valuable insights into market trends, potential support and resistance levels, and possible trading opportunities.
The cryptocurrency market has gained significant attention in recent years due to its rapid growth and potential for substantial returns. However, it is essential to be aware of the high volatility and inherent risks associated with trading cryptocurrencies. Market sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and macroeconomic factors can all impact cryptocurrency prices.
As the crypto market evolves, more institutional players are entering the space, further influencing market dynamics. Traders and investors should stay informed about market developments, conduct thorough research, and implement risk management strategies to make informed decisions in the cryptocurrency market.
Please note that this report provides market commentary and historical data analysis for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any cryptocurrencies. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
ASIA TECH
Summary:
In July, the Micro Asia Tech 30 Index Futures (ATI) exhibited a positive performance, with prices moving from the $3,300 level to reach the $3,600 area by the end of the month. The index closed at $3,545, representing a 5.6% increase compared to June. Chinese component stocks played a significant role in the index's performance, delivering robust results, while other Asian component markets experienced mixed movements.
Chinese component stocks showed strength, with Kuaishou Technology, Bilibili, Inc., JD.com, Alibaba, and Meituan recording gains ranging from 19.6% to 25.5%. However, Sunny Optical Technology faced a 3.3% decline. Taiwanese stocks exhibited mixed performances, with Delta Electronics leading the gains while some others, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry and United Microelectronics Corp, saw slight declines. Japanese components also displayed mixed movements, with Z Corporation and Tokyo Electron showing gains, while Keyence and FujiFilm Holdings experienced losses.
In South Korea, Naver Corp, SK Hynix, and Kakao posted positive returns, while Samsung SDI and Samsung Electronics recorded slight declines.
Technical indicators suggest that the market conditions for ATI were strong, with overall buying pressure indicated by daily and weekly moving averages. Technical oscillators provided mixed signals, with daily indicators showing neutral conditions and weekly indicators suggesting buying opportunities.
Looking ahead, based on historical volatility, the price from the prior month's close could range between $3,186 and $3,904 in the next 30 days. Investors and traders may consider the weekly support ($3,332 to $3,532) or resistance ($4,283 to $4,439) areas for planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies.
As the Asia tech market remains dynamic and responsive to various factors, traders need advanced trading technology like AutoClimate or AutoUFOs to analyze market trends, identify potential opportunities, and manage risks effectively. These tools, used by professional traders, provide invaluable insights and are instrumental in navigating the complexities of the Asian tech market.
It is crucial to understand that the Asia tech market's composition is diversified, with China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea being the primary components. Each country's economic performance, geopolitical developments, and technological advancements can influence the overall performance of the ATI index.
In conclusion, investing or trading in the Asia tech market requires careful analysis, continuous monitoring of market conditions, and prudent risk management strategies. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming high-impact events, such as China CPI, China Retail Sales, and China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, as these events may trigger significant market movements. Additionally, staying informed about regulatory changes and technological innovations in the Asian tech sector can provide valuable insights for making informed trading decisions. However, always remember that trading carries inherent risks, and it is essential to seek professional financial advice before making any investment decisions.
BRENT
Summary:
In July, Mini Brent Crude Futures (BM) saw a significant breakout, breaking the June range between $71.00 and $79.00 and reaching the $85.00 level. The $71.00 area acted as a support level, while the area around $86.00 served as a resistance level. The past production cut decisions, including the discretionary output reduction and the additional production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have effectively tightened the supply market, leading to higher prices in July.
The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet via an online videoconference on Friday, 4th August, to assess the state of the global oil markets. While no further production changes are expected during this meeting, the market remains closely attuned to supply dynamics, especially as the demand side of the equation evolves. Producers may continue to adjust supply based on their future expectations for demand, potentially impacting future price movements.
Technical indicators for Mini Brent Crude Futures (BM) suggest a very strong market bias toward buying, with technical oscillators indicating a positive buying state. Looking ahead, historical volatility indicates that the prior month's close price could range between $77 and $94 in the next 30 days. Investors and traders may consider the weekly support levels ($72.51 to $75.41) or resistance levels ($92.65 to $98.57) for planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. It is worth noting that weekly chart prices are currently observed to be sideward trending.
As the oil market remains subject to various geopolitical and economic factors, using advanced trading technology such as AutoClimate or AutoUFOs can provide traders with valuable insights to navigate market trends and make informed trading decisions. These tools, utilized by industry professionals, offer sophisticated analytics and market intelligence, essential for successful trading in the volatile oil market.
In the upcoming month, Mini Brent Crude Futures (BM) may continue to experience price fluctuations based on global demand patterns, geopolitical developments, and production decisions by major oil-producing countries. Traders should closely monitor events such as OPEC+ meetings, geopolitical tensions in oil-rich regions, and economic indicators affecting oil demand to better assess potential opportunities and risks in the market.
As always, trading in the oil futures market carries inherent risks, and traders should exercise caution and seek expert advice before making any investment decisions. A comprehensive understanding of market conditions, combined with the use of cutting-edge trading technology, will empower traders to navigate the complexities of the Brent crude oil market effectively.
Please note that this report provides an overview of the market conditions and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended that individuals seek the guidance of a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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TRADDICTIV · Research Team
