US DOLLAR
Summary:
The Mini U.S. Dollar Index® Futures, represented by the symbol SDX, experienced various market movements and events during the previous month, shaping its performance and impacting currency markets. Let's review the highlights of the prior month and explore potential outlooks for the coming period.
In the first few trading days of June, the SDX faced bearish sentiment as it reached weekly resistance levels. Despite better-than-expected ADP employment numbers, the market experienced a contraction in manufacturing output, leading to a 0.71% decrease in the SDX. However, the bulls returned on June 2nd, following positive Nonfarm Payrolls data, resulting in a weekly closing loss of 0.18% at 103.95.
The subsequent week saw sideways trading until the bears took control on June 8th, triggered by unexpectedly high jobless claims. This led to a 0.71% loss in the SDX. Although the bulls made a comeback on the final trading day of the week, it was insufficient to recover earlier losses, and the SDX closed at 103.54, down 0.40%. On June 13th, core inflation data caused a drop in demand for the U.S. Dollar, which was further amplified by the Federal Reserve's announcement of a pause in interest rate rises. The downward momentum continued into June 15th, the worst-performing day of the month, with the SDX closing down 0.79%. By the end of the week, the SDX reached a weekly area of support, closing down 1.64%.
The following week started with sideways trading until the bears gained control, pushing the market towards a support area. However, the bulls mounted a strong rally in the final two days, resulting in a 0.69% gain and a closing price of 102.54. In the last trading week, the SDX steadily climbed higher to close with a marginal gain of 0.04%.
The Mini U.S. Dollar Index® Futures concluded the month at 102.59, experiencing a loss of 1.59%. Based on technical indicators, the trend is sideways on the daily timeframe and has reverted to a downtrend on the weekly timeframe.
Daily technical indicators for SDX prices indicate an overall sell signal based on moving averages. The technical oscillators suggest mostly neutral conditions, potentially prompting investors to consider waiting for a pullback before seeking selling opportunities. Utilizing historical volatility figures, the price from the prior month's close suggests a potential range between 104.76 and 100.41 within the next 32 days.
Traders and investors may consider the weekly support (100.59 to 99.63) or resistance (104.52 to 103.44) areas as reference points for planning their entries or exits, depending on their trading strategies.
When analyzing the U.S. Dollar market, utilizing powerful trading technology, such as AutoClimate or AutoUFOs, can provide valuable insights and support informed trading decisions. These tools leverage advanced algorithms and data analysis techniques to enhance market analysis capabilities and improve decision-making processes.
It is important to consider broader factors that influence the U.S. Dollar market, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, central bank decisions, and global market sentiment. Monitoring these factors can help gain a comprehensive understanding of the potential outlook for the U.S. Dollar and its impact on currency markets.
In conclusion, the Mini U.S. Dollar Index® Futures experienced various market movements in the prior month, influenced by economic data, central bank decisions, and market sentiment. Looking ahead, based on historical and statistical volatility figures, the U.S. Dollar market is expected to exhibit continued volatility and potential price fluctuations in the coming period. Leveraging advanced trading technology and staying informed about economic indicators and global market dynamics can assist traders and investors in making well-informed decisions.
BITCOIN
Summary:
The Bakkt® Bitcoin (USD) Cash Settled Monthly Futures, represented by the symbol BMC, witnessed significant market movements and events during the previous month, shaping its performance and impacting the cryptocurrency market. Let's review the highlights of the prior month and explore potential outlooks for the coming period.
In June, Bitcoin futures (BMC) experienced a notable increase in price, reaching $32,000 from an initial level of $24,500, closing the month at $31,260. Speculation emerged during the month regarding the potential approval of a spot bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Fund managers Blackrock and Fidelity had separately submitted applications for such an ETF. Previous rejections by the SEC were based on concerns about the susceptibility of the spot bitcoin market to price manipulation.
In response to the SEC's rejection of Fidelity's application, global exchange Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE) announced its intention to refile the application, emphasizing collaboration with digital asset exchange Coinbase to mitigate any potential market manipulation concerns.
Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, the Financial Services and Markets Act 2023 was enacted, recognizing crypto assets as "cryptographically secured digital representation of value or contractual rights." This designation classifies crypto assets as regulated financial instruments, products, or investments, enabling regulatory oversight by institutions such as HM Treasury, the Financial Conduct Authority, and the Bank of England.
Daily technical indicators for BMC prices signaled overall buying pressure based on moving averages, while weekly indicators indicated positive buying conditions. The technical oscillators predominantly indicated buying conditions as well. Utilizing historical volatility figures, the price from the prior month's close suggests a potential range between $26,317 and $36,202 within the next 30 days.
Traders and investors may consider the weekly support (ranging from $24,860 to $26,967) or resistance (ranging from $38,122 to $47,320) areas as reference points for planning their entries or exits, depending on their trading strategies.
When analyzing the Bitcoin market, it is essential to leverage powerful trading technology such as AutoClimate or AutoUFOs. These advanced tools utilize sophisticated algorithms and data analysis techniques to enhance market analysis capabilities and improve decision-making processes. By leveraging these tools, traders can gain valuable insights and make informed trading decisions.
The cryptocurrency market as a whole continues to evolve rapidly, influenced by various factors, including regulatory developments, technological advancements, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. Staying informed about these factors and utilizing cutting-edge trading technology can help navigate the market effectively.
In conclusion, the Bakkt® Bitcoin (USD) Cash Settled Monthly Futures experienced notable market movements in the prior month, driven by regulatory developments and market speculation. Looking ahead, based on historical and statistical volatility figures, the Bitcoin market is expected to exhibit continued volatility and potential price fluctuations in the coming period. Traders and investors should carefully analyze the market dynamics and leverage advanced trading technology to make informed decisions that align with their trading strategies.
ASIA TECH
Summary:
During the first half of June, the Micro Asia Tech 30 Index Futures (ATI) reached the $3,600 level, which was last seen in February. However, the index experienced a sell-off and closed the month at $3,358, representing a 2.6% increase compared to May. Chinese component stocks performed well overall, while Taiwanese and South Korean stocks faced some weakness.
Chinese stocks showed positive performance, with NetEase leading the way with a 15.1% rise. Baidu and Meituan both experienced gains of around 11%, while Tencent and Sunny Optical Technology saw increases of 6.8% and 6.2%, respectively. JD.com, Alibaba, and Xiaomi also posted positive returns.
Taiwanese stocks had mixed results, with Delta Electronics rising by 8.8% and Hon Hai Precision Industry seeing a reasonable increase of 6.1%. Media Tek Inc. and United Microelectronics Corp, on the other hand, faced declines, while Taiwan Semiconductor recorded a modest rise of 3.2%.
Japanese component stocks remained mostly flat, but a few stood out with notable gains. Nintendo rose by 10.2%, Canon by 9.5%, Tokyo Electron by 6.4%, and Fujitsu by 4.9%.
Korean stocks had a mixed performance as well. SK Hynix increased by 6.1% and Samsung Electronics saw a marginal gain of 1.1%. However, Samsung SDI, Naver Corp, and Kakao faced declines.
Looking ahead, the technical indicators for ATI prices indicate mixed or neutral market conditions, with daily sell signals and weekly neutral conditions. Based on historical volatility, the price could range between $3,116 and $3,600 in the next 30 days. Traders and investors may consider the weekly support ($3,153 to $3,211) or resistance ($4,283 to $4,439) areas when planning their entry or exit strategies.
The ATI index is composed of 37% Chinese stocks, 23% Japanese stocks, 23% Taiwanese stocks, and 17% South Korean stocks.
Outlook:
Based on historical volatility and statistical volatility figures, the Micro Asia Tech 30 Index Futures (ATI) may experience moderate price fluctuations in the coming month. With historical volatility ranging between 19.11% and 24.99%, it indicates that the index could see movements within a certain price range.
Investors and traders should closely monitor the upcoming high-impact events, such as China's CPI and Retail Sales data, as well as the Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. These events have the potential to influence market sentiment and impact the performance of Asian technology stocks.
It is worth noting that analyzing and trading in the Asian technology market requires access to powerful trading technology. Tools like AutoClimate or AutoUFOs can provide valuable insights and assist traders in making informed decisions. These tools, used by professionals, leverage advanced algorithms and data analysis to identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities.
The Asian technology sector is dynamic and influenced by various factors, including geopolitical events, technological advancements, and regulatory changes. Traders and investors should stay updated with the latest news and developments in the industry to make informed decisions.
The Asian technology market is an important segment of the global financial market, contributing significantly to innovation and economic growth. As technology continues to evolve rapidly, the Asian tech sector presents exciting opportunities for investors seeking exposure to this dynamic industry.
It's important to note that this report provides market commentary and historical data analysis for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BRENT
Summary:
In June, Mini Brent Crude Futures (BM) traded within a range of $71.00 to $79.00. The $71.00 level acted as support, while the area around $86.00 served as resistance. Geopolitical factors continued to create uncertainty in the global oil market, leading corporations to adopt a cautious approach and manage their budgets while waiting for more favorable market conditions. The decisions made by central banks regarding inflation control through interest rates remained a key consideration for executives in their future planning.
The OPEC+ committee convened on June 4th and agreed to implement production adjustments to manage the recent decline in oil prices. As part of this agreement, Saudi Arabia announced an additional reduction of one million barrels per day in its production starting in July.
Technical indicators for Mini Brent Crude Futures suggested a weak market bias toward selling, with oscillators indicating a neutral state and providing limited directional opportunities. Based on historical volatility, the price could range between $67 and $83 in the next 30 days. Traders and investors may consider the weekly support ($49.60 to $51.97) or resistance ($77.72 to $82.73) areas for planning their entry or exit strategies. The weekly chart shows a downward trend.
Outlook:
Looking ahead, the statistical volatility ranges for Mini Brent Crude Futures indicate a projected daily volatility between ±8.22 and ±8.45. This suggests that the market may experience moderate price fluctuations in the coming month. Traders and investors should closely monitor upcoming high-impact events, such as OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, which can significantly influence market sentiment and oil prices.
It's important to note that analyzing and trading in the oil market requires access to powerful trading technology. Tools like AutoClimate or AutoUFOs can provide valuable insights and assist traders in making informed decisions. These tools, used by professionals, leverage advanced algorithms and data analysis to identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities.
The oil market is influenced by a wide range of factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply and demand dynamics, macroeconomic indicators, and regulatory decisions. Traders and investors should stay updated with the latest news and developments in the industry to make well-informed decisions.
The energy sector plays a vital role in the global financial market and is closely linked to economic growth and stability. As the world transitions to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, the oil market continues to evolve, presenting both challenges and opportunities for market participants.
Please note that this report provides market commentary and historical data analysis for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Please note that this report provides an overview of the market conditions and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended that individuals seek the guidance of a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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TRADDICTIV · Research Team
